China’s population set to peak at 1.44 billion in 2029

China’s population set to peak at 1.44 billion in 2029

Using UN data, data from China's National Bureau of Statistics, and independent research, they estimate that the fertility rate in 2018 may have been as low as 1.05.

Working population numbers were now stagnating, it said, with a low fertility rate set to cause further issues.

Both changes combined could cause "very unfavourable social and economic consequences", the report says.

The "Green Book of Population and Labour" report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said that in 2029, China's population will be 1.44 billion and will start declining from the following year onward.

In August, the official media said China's rapidly ageing population has touched 241 million, accounting for one-fifth of the over 1.4 billion people in the world's most populous country.

The report came after Chinese demographers said China's three-year-old two child policy failed to make an impact on the low birth rate as the number of new-borns dropped by two million past year and the decline was expected to continue.

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In 2017, the number of second children in China rose to 8.83 million.

While relaxing the one-child policy will help long-term, in the short-term, it will create more dependents, according to the report.

However, the country's birth rate still fell 3.5 percent in 2017 and is expected to have fallen again a year ago.

Meanwhile, the CASS paper also warns of a decrease in China's dependency ratio, which measures population productivity by comparing age groups not typically in the workforce - children and the elderly - with groups that are.

Huang Wenzheng, a demographics expert, told the Global Times yesterday that he disagreed with the CASS report, saying it was too optimistic. The report predicts that China's general population will "experience negative growth" - that is, begin to shrink - by 2027, three years earlier than a United Nations projection.

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