Imf Warns Of 'somewhat' Greater Global Financial Risk

Imf Warns Of 'somewhat' Greater Global Financial Risk

On Monday, it downgraded world growth forecasts for next year, blaming new trade barriers.

The euro area will expand 2 per cent this year, down 0.2 point from July, as a result of weaker-than-expected growth in the first half of the year.

It was now predicting 3.7 percent global growth in both 2018 and 2019, down from its July forecast of 3.9 percent growth for both years.

"The continent could do much better once these economies are on a more solid footing, particularly South Africa and Nigeria, because they are really large and affect a number of countries in their neighbourhood".

The worldwide organisation warned a full-blown trade war between the USA and China could have wider implications for the financial growth around the world.

The report comes on the eve of the October 12-14 meetings in Bali, Indonesia, of the International Monetary Fund and its sister lending organization, the World Bank.

"US growth will decline once parts of its fiscal stimulus go into reverse", International Monetary Fund chief economist Maurice Obstfeld said in a statement.

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The ongoing trade war between the US and China could start having material effects on the economies of both countries within the coming years, according to new projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The IMF's analysis suggests that there is a 5 per cent probability, emerging market economies (excluding China) could face debt portfolio outflows of US$100 billion or more over a period of four quarters (equivalent to 0.6 per cent of their combined GDP), broadly similar in magnitude to the Global Financial Crisis. This is still lower than the global economic growth of 3.7 percent. Both nations had to raise interest rates sharply in recent months.

'A sharp tightening of global financial conditions could be triggered by a further escalation of trade tensions or by a sudden shift in risk sentiment caused by rising geopolitical risks or policy uncertainty in major economies'. "In Angola, inflation is projected to fall to 20.5 per cent in 2018 from 29.8 per cent in 2017, and to decline further to 15.8 per cent in 2019", it added.

The IMF expects that Russia's growth will reach 1.8 percent in 2019, according to the World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday.

"Up from India's growth rate of 6.7 per cent in 2016, the growth projections for this year and the next reflect "a rebound from transitory shocks" of demonetisation and the implementation of the national Goods and Services Tax" and "strengthening investment and robust private consumption", WEO said.

The report analysed China's public balance sheet and found that its general government net financial worth has deteriorated in recent years to about 8 per cent of GDP, largely because of subnational borrowing and underperforming public corporations. It cited Australia, New Zealand and Britain as countries that are taking positive steps to better manage their assets against the growth of future liabilities.

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